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’Nguy cơ đụng độ trên Biển Đông vài tháng tới rất lớn’

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Trong những tháng tới khó có thể loại trừ khả năng sẽ nổ ra các cuộc đụng độ trên Biển Đông giữa lực lượng hàng hải (cảnh sát biển, kiểm ngư, hải giám, ngư chính...) và tàu cá các bên tranh chấp. Nói cách khác, nguy cơ xung đột trên Biển Đông đang ngày một lớn hơn.

Mặc dù ASEAN và Trung Quốc thỏa thuận về việc khởi động đàm phán Quy tắc ứng xử của các bên trên Biển Đông COC, nhưng những diễn biến tình hình Biển Đông 6 tháng đầu năm 2013 đã chứng minh quỹ đạo chung của tranh chấp Biển Đông sẽ tiếp tục diễn biến xấu đi và rất ít khả năng cải thiện trong thời gian tới.

 

Trong những tháng tới khó có thể loại trừ khả năng sẽ nổ ra các cuộc đụng độ trên Biển Đông giữa lực lượng hàng hải (cảnh sát biển, kiểm ngư, hải giám, ngư chính...) và tàu cá các bên tranh chấp. Nói cách khác, nguy cơ xung đột trên Biển Đông đang ngày một lớn hơn, học giả Ian Storey thuộc Viện nghiên cứu Đông Nam Á tại Singapore, một chuyên gia về Biển Đông nhận định trên tờ Asia Times Onlines hôm 10/6.

 

Từ đầu năm 2013 đến nay cục diện tranh chấp chủ quyền ở Biển Đông tiếp tục diễn biến theo chiều hướng xấu đi với đặc trưng bởi sự gia tăng các hoạt động "khẳng định chủ quyền" trên Biển Đông cũng như phản ứng của các bên đối với các hoạt động này.

 

Học giả Ian Storey thuộc viện Nghiên cứu Đông Nam Á tại Singapore, chuyên gia hàng đầu về Biển Đông
Học giả Ian Storey thuộc viện Nghiên cứu Đông Nam Á tại Singapore, chuyên gia hàng đầu về Biển Đông

Tiến trình Philippines kiện Trung Quốc khó có thể làm giảm căng thẳng trên Biển Đông

 

Vụ Philippines kiện đường lưỡi bò phi pháp và hành động gây hấn của Trung Quốc ở Biển Đông ra hội đồng Trọng tài Liên Hợp Quốc về Luật Biển chính thức bắt đầu từ ngày 22/1 năm nay, tuy nhiên do Bắc Kinh vẫn khăng khăng đòi đàm phán tay đôi và ngày 19/2 Trung Quốc chính thức từ chối tham gia vụ kiện.

 

Mặc dù vụ kiện này vẫn được tiếp tục khi Chánh án Tòa án quốc tế về Luật Biển đã bổ nhiệm các thành viên của hội đồng Trọng tài thụ lý vụ việc từ tháng 3, nhưng phải đến tháng 7 tới Tòa án quốc tế về Luật Biển mới quyết định hội đồng Trọng tài có thẩm quyền phân xử vụ kiện hay không.

 

Cho dù là có, cũng phải mất vài năm để ra một phán quyết cuối cùng trong khi phán quyết ấy có tính ràng buộc nhưng lại không có hiệu lực vì không bắt buộc được Trung Quốc phải tuân thủ.

 

Tuy nhiên, nếu trọng tài quốc tế ra phán quyết rằng yêu sách chủ quyền của Trung Quốc ở Biển Đông với đường lưỡi bò phi pháp là không phù hợp với Công ước Liên Hợp Quốc về Luật Biển (UNCLOS) thì có thể xem như Philippines đã giành phần thắng trên phương diện pháp lý và ngoại giao, đồng thời gây sức ép buộc Trung Quốc phải làm rõ răn cứ yêu sách (vô lý) của mình ở Biển Đông.

 

Cạnh tranh nguồn tài nguyên sẽ vẫn là xu thế chủ đạo của tranh chấp Biển Đông, đụng độ giữa các bên sẽ khó tránh khỏi trong vài tháng tới.

Tàu cá Việt Nam bị tàu quân sự Trung Quốc bắn cháy cabin khi đang đánh bắt hợp pháp trong vùng biển chủ quyền của Việt Nam tại Hoàng Sa hôm 20/3
Tàu cá Việt Nam bị tàu quân sự Trung Quốc bắn cháy cabin khi đang đánh bắt hợp pháp trong vùng biển chủ quyền của Việt Nam tại Hoàng Sa hôm 20/3

6 tháng đầu năm 2013 hoạt động của ngư dân các bên trong vùng biển tranh chấp ở Biển Đông đã gây ra một loạt sự cố nghiêm trọng làm gia tăng căng thẳng trong khu vực.

 

Điển hình là vụ ngày 20/3 tàu quân sự Trung Quốc đã xua đuổi, bắn cháy cabin một tàu cá Việt Nam đang đánh bắt (hợp pháp trong vùng biển chủ quyền của Việt Nam) tại Hoàng Sa.

 

Bất chấp phản đối của Việt Nam, Trung Quốc đã chối bay chối biến yêu cầu xin lỗi và bồi thường cho ngư dân Việt Nam, thậm chí còn ngang ngược lên giọng khẳng định động thái phạm pháp nghiêm trọng này là "phù hợp và cần thiết"?!

 

Diễn biến tiếp theo là vụ tàu Cảnh sát biển Philippines nổ súng vào 1 tàu cá Đài Loan khi cho rằng tàu cá này xâm phạm vùng đặc quyền kinh tế của Philippines ở eo biển Bashi dẫn vào Biển Đông khiến 1 ngư dân Đài Loan thiệt mạng hôm 9/5.

 

Đặc biệt, kể từ ngày 16/5 Trung Quốc đơn phương áp đặt lệnh cấm đánh bắt cá (hết sức phi lý và phi pháp) ở Biển Đông từ vĩ tuyến 12 trở về phía Bắc, vi phạm nghiêm trọng các vùng biển chủ quyền của Việt Nam trong khi chỉ 1 tuần trước đó 32 tàu cá cỡ lớn của Trung Quốc kéo xuống Trường Sa đánh bắt (trái phép).

Tập Cận Bình thăm ngư dân - dân binh làng chài Đàm Môn tỉnh Hải Nam, động thái được xem như nhằm dọa dẫm các nước láng giềng có tranh chấp ở Biển Đông
Tập Cận Bình thăm ngư dân - dân binh làng chài Đàm Môn tỉnh Hải Nam, động thái được xem như nhằm dọa dẫm các nước láng giềng có tranh chấp ở Biển Đông

Một tháng trước đó, trong khi đi thăm ngư dân làng chài Đàm Môn tỉnh Hải Nam, nhà lãnh đạo Trung Quốc Tập Cận Bình đã "hứa" với ngư dân nước này rằng (hoạt động đánh bắt phi pháp trên Biển Đông của) họ sẽ được "bảo vệ tốt hơn".

 

Trung Quốc đã công khai khẳng định sẽ tăng cường hiện diện (trái phép) của các lực lượng tàu cá tại quần đảo Trường Sa (thuộc chủ quyền Việt Nam) mà nó cam kết sẽ "bảo vệ", thậm chí là "bằng vũ lực nếu cần thiết".

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